Mo'Nique to Announce Oscar Nominees

I'm riffing on a conversation from Facebook (sorry Matt & Erik!) here but since Mo'Nique will announce the Oscar nominees on January 25th with AMPAS president Tom Sherak, can she please do it in character as Mary Jones!!?!

Frankly, no matter which wonderful film or actor gets a terribly unjust snub that morning (and I know a handful who are in danger), it'd still be the greatest Oscar morning of all time if Mo'Nique will rip down one of those 5 screens that hang behind the podium as soon as she's displeased with one of the names uttered.

I know you know the set I'm talking about...

the general setup each year.

Just rip down one of them screens, Mo'Nique!

Hurl it at the sea of reporters, caught off guard. You'll be all anyone talks about that Tuesday even though you didn't even have a movie this year.

This is my new favorite Oscar nomination morning fantasy of all time! If you share this fantasy, pass it on. We can will it into happening. Hear us oh great Mo'Nique!
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WGA Nominees. So Many Disqualifications Make This Hard To Read

The Writers Guild members have spoken. Though their tongues were kinda bound by their rules which prohibit, as I understand it, non-members from receiving nominations (AMPAS members can vote for you even if you aren't affiliated with them or with an American guild). So for what it's worth, here are the nominations.

"I heard you were an MTV girl"
Alice in The Fighter

Original Screenplay

Black Swan, Screenplay by Mark Heyman and Andres Heinz and John McLaughlin; Story by Andres Heinz; Fox Searchlight
The Fighter, Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson; Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson; Paramount Pictures
Inception, Written by Christopher Nolan; Warner Bros.
The Kids Are All Right, Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg; Focus Features
Please Give, Written by Nicole Holofcener; Sony Pictures Classics

• Last year and the year before this category had very little overlap between WGA and Oscar (2 and only 1 similarity respectively). You have to go back to 2007 to get a year with a lot of agreement (4 of 5). 
• Oscar contenders that were not eligible for the WGA prize for various reasons are The King's Speech, Blue Valentine, Biutiful and Another Year. You'd be foolish to count the first and the last out especially, since Speech is a frontrunning film of sorts and Another Year comes from Mike Leigh whose process has long fascinated the writers branch within the Academy. I suspect the Black Swan and Please Give screenplays aren't safe, the former because it's viewed as a director's film and the latter because it's profile is low, though it's very clever in terms of dialogue. my current screenplay predictions.

"You don't look like you belong here
Phillip." -Steven Russell to
(I Love You) Phillip Morris

Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours, Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy; Based on the book Between a Rock and a Hard Place by Aron Ralston; Fox Searchlight
I Love You Phillip Morris, Written by John Requa & Glenn Ficarra; Based on the book by Steven McVicker; Roadside Attractions
The Social Network, Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin; Based on the book The Accidental Billionaires by Ben Mezrich; Sony Pictures
The Town, Screenplay by Peter Craig and Ben Affleck & Aaron Stockard; Based on the novel Prince of Thieves by Chuck Hogan; Warner Bros.
True Grit, Screenplay by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen; Based on the novel by Charles Portis; Paramount Pictures

• Major Oscar contenders that were not eligible include Winter's Bone, Toy Story 3 and The Ghost Writer as well as a few longshots that could theoretically appear if their fanbases buck current precursor trends and rank them #1 on their ballots en masse: The Way Back, Never Let Me Go, and Scott Pilgrim vs. The World. (This category has stronger overlap with Oscar nominations than their Original category. But I expect this to only line up 3/5 this year with Winter's Bone and Toy Story 3 being very strong Oscar contenders.
• Snubbed: Rabbit Hole. It's just having trouble catching on.
• How about that I Love You Phillip Morris citation? Surprise! It's a fun inclusion. Too bad the movie didn't get a wider release. It's comic enough that you'd think they would have risked a wide release. It's only at 68 theaters currently and will be Jim Carrey's lowest grossing major role since Earth Girls are Easy (1989) well before he broke out as a major star.
  

Documentary Screenplay
Enemies of the People, Written, Directed, Filmed and Produced by Rob Lemkin and Thet Sambath; International Film Circuit
Freedom Riders, Written, Produced and Directed by Stanley Nelson; International Film Circuit
Gasland, Written and Directed by Josh Fox; HBO Documentary Films and International WOW Company
Inside Job, Produced, Written and Directed by Charles Ferguson; Co-written by Chad Beck, Adam Bolt; Sony Pictures Classics
The Two Escobars, Written by Michael Zimbalist, Jeff Zimbalist; ESPN Films
Who Is Harry Nilsson (And Why Is Everybody Talkin’ About Him)?, Written and Directed by John Scheinfeld; Lorber Films

•  No, I'm not sure why there are six nominees. Perhaps there is no tiebreaker system. Interesting that this list, like the PGA nominees earlier today, contain so few Oscar finalists...

Box Office Blather: Princess Dividends and Per Screen Averages

The box office for New Year's weekend was little changed from Christmas weekend when Jeff Bridges double dipped and I had a creepy 90s flashback (that whole post still applies) so instead of sharing their grosses in that banal way you can get anywhere, let's share their gross minus their budget. This is an inexact science for sure. It doesn't include the $$$ of worldwide grosses but it also doesn't include the $$$ of advertising costs so we like it as a vague snapshot of how the movies are doing.

Top Ten Box Office
key: red (budgets way too big) black (passed their budget) green (heading towards significant profits.)

1. Little Fockers + $2 million (second week)
2. True Grit + $48 million (second week)
3. Tron Legacy -$39 million (third week)
4. Yogi Bear - $15 million (third week)
5. Chronicles of Narnia -$69 million (fourth week)
6. The Fighter + $21 million (fourth week)
7. Tangled - $93 million (sixth week - not as disastrous as it looks since Disney is its own franchise. People really like this gargantuanly expensive movie so it might restore some faith in the faltering "brand" and help the next movie. Plus it adds another "princess" to their merchandise line. Ka-ching!)
8. Gulliver's Travels -$85 million (second week)
9. Black Swan + $34 million (fifth week)
10. The King's Speech + $7 million (sixth week)

This is far less depressing than just regular ol' box office reporting right? The good movies aren't as expensive to make and they're making significant money. [Tangent: Let True Grit (review) and Black Swan (plentiful posts) be a lesson to filmmakers and studios: these movies look sensational and feature movie stars. How on earth is your movie so much more expensive?]

One more list. How about the best per-screen averages? Naturally this favors movies in very few theaters that have withheld themselves for several months of buzz whilst waiting for Golden Globe and Oscar fever to kick in. From my throne armchair that looks like distributors just throwing money away while people talk about product they can't spend money on for 3 to 12 months. This only increases the likelihood of piracy and/or likelihood that people might be sick of you in the abstract when you're finally available for tangible purchase. Yes, I live in NYC and seeing movies is easy but I remember quite well what a trial it was before I moved here. I'm still, I'm still Jenny from the block.

That list goes like so...

Top Per Screen Average

1. Blue Valentine (4 theaters) $48,000+ (debut)
2. Country Strong (2 theaters) $20,000+ (2nd week)
3. Another Year (6 theaters)  $18,000+ (debut)
4. Somewhere (8 theaters) $17,000+ (2nd week)
5. The Illusionist (3 theaters) $15,000+ (2nd week)
6. The King's Speech (700 theaters) $11,000+ (6th week)

They must be partying at the Weinstein Co. right now (#1 and #6)

I can't fathom why Country Strong, built to appeal to an enormous market of people who love country music, didn't just open wide? If the film isn't very good -- which they keep saying -- why not make all your money up front before word of mouth doesn't kick in? Naturally this chart is very good news for The King's Speech since it's already gone wide and it's still filling plentiful seats wherever it plays. But here's the sad news: It's rough going out there for Rabbit Hole which has only a $4,000+ average on 34 screens in its 3rd week. Now that's a better number than most of the top ten movies but it's not generally enough to get distributors excited about spending more money to release you winder. Sniffle. Rabbit Hole is not half as depressing as Blue Valentine so if the "depression" factor is keeping people away, they're being silly. It's a really good movie. Why can't Nicole catch a break? Sigh.

What did you spend your money on over New Year's? (I mean, besides booze)
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PGA Nominations: No Winter's Bone

And for best Pro Golfer the nomin--- er, oh yes yes.
The Producers Guild of America. Righty-o.

Best Picture
127 Hours Danny Boyle, Christian Colson
Black Swan Scott Franklin, Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver
Inception Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas
The Fighter David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Mark Wahlberg
The Kids Are All Right Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte, Celine Rattray
The King's Speech Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin
The Social Network Dana Brunetti, Cean Chaffin, Michael De Luca, Scott Rudin
The Town Basil Iwanyk, Graham King
Toy Story 3 Darla K. Anderson
True Grit Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin

The snubbee here in terms of Oscar buzz is Winter's Bone. But it's a tiny indie and maybe that's not what the PGA wanted to value? Still it's absence reminds us that the Best Picture race, is really down to those 11 films. Last year, there were only about 12 films standing before Oscar nominations were announced. Is it always going to be this simple to predict with the new widened Best Picture field. If so, sadness. Predicting should be tougher. But at least it's tough to say which of the 11 is getting the Oscar boot.



I'm currently assuming that it's either 127 Hours or The Town on the outs come January 25th but who knows? Maybe it'll be something that breaks my heart more like The Kids Are All Right or --GASP-- how will the internet go on living if it's Inception? When there is just one too many strong precursor candidates in any category (see also supporting actress) sometimes the person/film left out is not the one everyone thought was most vulnerable.

Animated Pictures:
Despicable Me John Cohen, Janet Healy, Christopher Meledandri
How To Train Your Dragon Bonnie Arnold
Toy Story 3 Darla K. Anderson

Despicable Me eh? I guess you have to give the producers credit for how good that looked and how successful it was despite a budget that was far lower than most of the animated films that were hits this year.

Documentary Pictures:
Client 9 Awaiting final credit determination
Earth Made of Glass Reid Carolin, Deborah Scranton
Inside Job Charles Ferguson, Audrey Marrs
Smash His Camera Linda Saffire, Adam Schlesinger
The Tillman Story  John Battsek
Waiting For 'Superman' Lesley Chilcott

I'm proud of them for not restricting themselves to only Oscar finalists here. Though I still don't really get the enthusiasm for Client 9, Inside Job and Waiting For 'Superman'... as they seem to be such straightforward docs. I guess I'm drawn to more creative / surprising let's informational documentaries.

Episodic TV, Comedy
30 Rock
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Glee
Modern Family
The Office

Episodic TV, Drama
Breaking Bad
Dexter
Lost
Mad Men
True Blood

Longform TV
Murder on the Orient Express
Pillars of Earth
Temple Grandin
The Pacific
You Don't Know Jack

I sometimes have nightmares that in the year 2014 people will still be nominating Temple Grandin for prizes. Isn't that already like 3 years old?

NonFiction TV
Anthony Bourdain: No Reservations
Deadliest Catch
Intervention
Kathy Griffin: My Life on the D-List
Undercover Boss

Live Entertainment and Competition TV
The Amazing Race
The Colbert Report
Project Runway
Real Time With Bill Maher
Top Chef

Dating a Semi Sadist

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OFCS Winners

The Online Film Critics Society announced their winners this morning. It's the expected winners who've 'worn a groove' as Sasha has been known to say. So everyone votes for them and shall for the rest of the season. For the most part. Hopefully supporting actress will shift towards Leo, Adams or Weaver for the win... all of them actually supporting players, and amazing ones at that. It's been a good year for actresses it has.

Is this awards season all a dream? It's happening on a loop.

No surprises in the winners so I had to goof off a little in the listing. Just trying to keep it fun.

Picture: The Social Network
Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Lead Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Our Leading Lady of Ubiquity: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Lead Actor Who Supports The Other Lead Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Lead Actress Who Supports Entirety of Her Movie: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Original Exposition: Christopher Nolan, Inception
Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Cinematography: Roger Deakins, True Grit
Editing: Lee Smith, Inception
Animated Feature That Cures Cancer: Toy Story 3
Foreign Language Film: Mother
Documentary: Exit Through The Gift Shop